The Silent Number

Posted: 2008-03-31

Over the past few years, the free software movement has made great progress, and it's constantly gaining momentum. With free software advancing at an exponential rate, we are not far from, and not necessarily in terms of time, Linux being as common as Windows, and then beating it. When we reach the breaking point, consider the free software movement unstoppable :)

People assert different reasons why free software hasn't completely replaced proprietary software yet, one of which is gaming. Currently, most games are released only for Windows, but Wine is quickly becoming able to run those games in Linux until the time comes when most games are released to run natively in Linux. The biggest issue right now certainly should not be games since at this point the best target for Linux, in my opinion, are people with very simple computer needs. That isn't to say that Linux isn't ready for everyone else, but it is more than ready for this group. This is also the biggest and easiest target.

The one thing with basic users is that most technophobic people fall into this category. Because of this, usability is often an argument against Linux, but it really isn't an issue anymore. Many Linux distributions, especially Ubuntu, are very usable. Ubuntu isn't significantly less user-friendly than Mac or Windows, but since it is different, it will need to be significantly more intuitive than them for the technophobic to feel comfortable switching. The only reason some people are only comfortable with Windows is because they are used to it and a change of something they already don't actually understand (their operating system) is a prospect with a distinct stress and even fear associated with it.

Hardware support is almost not even an issue anymore. The only reason that success is so frequent with Windows is because most Windows users receive their machines already loaded with the necessary drivers. Security, stability, availability, and price are certainly not issues. So, since there is plenty of reason to switch to Linux, and few remaining obstacles, why isn't everyone doing it? It comes down to consumer awareness. I will refer mostly to Ubuntu because it is, in my opinion, the most mainstream-ready distribution of Linux and its success is a win for Linux and free software as a whole.

Now, it seems logical to look for some flaw with Linux to blame for it not being more popular and then to try to fix that flaw, but instead consider that there is no flaw and that there are other things holding Linux back. Let's instead think about what needs to happen to reach the tipping point. Targeting governments or public schools to adopt Linux has a strong local impact but what will really put things in motion? Linux needs to be sold right alongside Windows.

All it would take is for one major chain of stores to successfully execute a Linux offering. Right now, Dell sells Ubuntu machines, so why aren't more dominoes falling? Well, for starters, Ubuntu is only offered on a separate section of their website and it's not sold alongside Windows. Doing so would help, but another reason is that selling Ubuntu online doesn't give it the visibility of having it sold in stores. A lot of the technophobic type need to go to a store where there are people to answer their questions and inform them.

Now let's imagine this happening with just one major chain store. With an Ubuntu loaded machine on the shelf next to a Windows box, people will be seeing Ubuntu as the serious competition to Windows that it is. Staff will have to know about free software and Linux, so customers will no longer be kept in the dark. The concepts of free software and the open source software model will finally be revealed to the everyday computer buyer. Support will be made available for these buyers. More press coverage will bring even more visibility. After that comes more machines being sold with Linux, more industry support, more hardware being designed to work for Linux, and free software development flourishing.

Okay, but why would a company gamble on the success of selling machines with Linux pre-installed? Well, for the above result, you don't have to offer every machine with Windows or Ubuntu: you only need a couple-- maybe one laptop and one desktop. Start by selling a couple, and that will provide a taste of the demand. I have no doubt that this small offering would appeal to a lot of people. There's also the press that this company would be able to enjoy. Which company wouldn't want to be the first one to sell the next big thing?

What can we do to make this happen? Go to the store and ask them about Ubuntu, then if they don't sell that on any of their machines which they probably don't, show off Ubuntu on your own machine if you brought it with you, or promise to bring in your Ubuntu laptop sometime soon. Make calls, write letters, and take advantage of things like Dell's IdeaStorm. The most important thing to do is to show how they would profit from this. They would be the first to tap into this growing market and they would get lots of press. I encourage everyone to get involved in making this happen. The success of free software is inevitable anyways, so if nothing else, just keep up the good work!